What It Tells You
A regional outbreak alert says that conditions in your region have reached the point where an epidemic is likely. It describes the region. It does not describe your field. The Fusarium Head Blight Risk model works at regional resolution. Its predictors are the hours of warmth, humidity and rain across the region in the week before wheat flowers. It is labelled regional and is never shown as a per-field result. An alert is the prompt to check your own crop’s stage and the foliar disease pressure on your own fields. If they agree, plan the pass.How It Works
Alerts come from the published risk models and are scoped to the region they were computed for. Every alert carries its source: the model and the weather series behind it. Every alert carries its confidence: a calibrated probability with an interval and a band. Only a high band raises a notification. The notification says “conditions in your region”. It never says “your field”.
The alert covers the region around the farm and carries its confidence band.