Variety Recommender

The variety recommender scores every listed variety for one field and shows the best matches in order. The score has five parts with fixed weights. Each variety carries the reasons behind its score, a confidence band tied to how much the field’s sensors have recorded, and the Recommended List entry it drew on. Candidates are narrowed to the field’s current crop when one is set. A toggle shows all crops.

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What It Tells You

For each variety: a match score out of 100, the confidence band, the breeder, the reasons in plain words, the Recommended List figures (treated yield, septoria and yellow rust resistance, protein, specific weight and edition), the mean and spread of yields recorded for that variety in fields like this one, and the trade-off against the top pick where there is one. Ten varieties are shown by default.

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How It’s Calculated

The field’s microclimate profile is the median pH and median soil moisture from its readings, plus a cluster derived from median soil temperature and moisture (cold, mild or warm against dry, balanced or wet) and a data quality: full at 200 readings or more, partial at 30 or more, cold-start below that. The five parts of the score:

• Soil pH fit, 25 points. All 25 when the field’s median pH sits inside the variety’s recommended range. Nothing otherwise, and nothing when either figure is missing.
• Soil moisture fit, 25 points. The same rule for median soil moisture against the variety’s recommended range.
• Trait match, 15 points. 4 points per listed trait, up to four traits, capped at 15.
• Yield in similar fields, 15 points. The variety’s mean yield in the field’s cluster is turned into a z-score against the mean of every candidate’s cluster yield, clamped between minus one and plus one, and scaled from 0 to 15.
• Recommended List trials, 20 points. Treated yield placed within the candidates’ range gives 0 to 14 (7 when every candidate has the same figure). A septoria bonus adds 6 at a rating of 7 or more, 4 at 6, 2 at 5, and 0 below. Capped at 20.

The match score is the sum, capped at 100. Varieties are sorted by score. Confidence: cold-start when the field has no cluster or fewer than 30 readings; low when the readings are partial; medium when full; high when full and the variety has 20 or more recorded harvests in the cluster. Worked example. A field with median pH 6.8, median moisture 38% and full readings. A variety with a recommended pH of 6.0 to 7.5 and moisture of 30 to 50%, three listed traits, a cluster yield half a standard deviation above the candidates’ mean, a treated yield of 103% where candidates range from 98 to 106%, and a septoria rating of 6. The score is 86 out of 100. Confidence is medium: full readings, but fewer than 20 harvests of this variety in the cluster.

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Where The Numbers Come From

Each factor is shown with its weight, its contribution and its source. Gaps are stated in words: no Recommended List entry for the variety (ranked on field fit and traits only), or no outcome history for the field (ranked on trials and traits, not your own yields). A variety is matched to its Recommended List entry by name through an alias table, so a breeder’s own name for a variety lands on the same entry. The evidence behind each ranking is on the Variety Evidence page.

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Limits

• A cold-start field still gets a ranking. The pH, moisture and yield parts score zero, so the order rests on traits and trials, and the band says cold-start.
• Traits count without checking the field for the matching pressure. Every listed trait scores, up to four.
• The trial part scores treated yield and septoria only. Yellow rust, protein and specific weight are shown, not scored.
• A variety without a Recommended List entry can’t score above 80.
• The yield part compares varieties against each other within the cluster. It says nothing about absolute yield on this field.